Analysts are struggling to predict what may lie in store for Macau in 2015.
The general consensus is that the early part of the year is likely to bring little respite from the contraction that began in June. It’s on what happens beyond that views begin to diverge.
For Bloomberg’s senior analyst for gaming and lodging and director of Asian research, Tim Craighead, next year will again be a year of two halves - through a mirror image.
Speaking at the Bloomberg Intelligence annual luncheon at the Conrad hotel in Hong Kong, Craighead charted the litany of factors that reversed an early surge in revenue in 2014 into the current contraction. Casino operator stocks are now 40 per cent lower and gaming revenue down 20 per cent year-to-date.
A prolonged drought of new resorts, tough year-on-year comparisons, a shift from VIP to the mass market, Beijing’s “anti-extravagance” campaign, Union Pay restrictions, border restrictions, the smoking ban and, finally, the Occupy Central protests in Hong Kong have all contributed to the downturn.
