Bernstein Research has lowered its forecast for Macau’s July gross gaming revenue, mainly due to an expected lower VIP hold.
The firm says that according to its channel checks GGR from July 14 to 21 was MOP17bn (US$2.1bn), for an average daily rate of MOP809m. The month-to-date ADR is up two per cent from June and down one per cent from July last year.
“VIP volume is estimated to be down mid-single digits with the hold rate towards the lower end of the normalised range,” the firm said. “Mass GGR is estimated to be up mid-single digits.”
As a result, it has cut its estimate for GGR growth to flat to up two per cent for July, down from up six to eight per cent previously. However, the firm cautions that weekly channel checks have proven to be volatile in the past and “less than accurate.”
However, moving forward the year-on-year comparisons are likely to ease, as the beginning of US/China trade tensions last summer began to bite.
“One area of potential high end GGR stabilisation and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in 2H,” it said.
That said growth in China was weaker than expected in June and the ongoing trade war will pose headwinds for China’s economy and as a result on gaming spending in Macau from China’s high rollers.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief
