Fitch Ratings expects gaming revenue in Macau to grow by 12 per cent this year, thanks to equal contribution from VIP and mass-market revenues.
According to the report, the year-to-date growth through March has been 13 per cent, with February growing 18 per cent year-on-year. Fitch’s 2017 forecast assumes low single-digit range month-to-month sequential growth for the balance of the year, compared to four per cent average sequential growth since July 2016.
Fitch notes that the forecasted growth rate takes into account tougher year-over-year comparisons in the second-half of 2017 and raises the possibility that the tighter monetary policy and increased real estate restrictions may slow economic growth on the mainland. Fitch added that VIP growth has exceeded expectations, growing 17 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017.
Stronger economic indicators on the mainland - such as players acclimatising to China’s crackdown initiatives on both corruption and casino marketing by foreign companies based outside Macau - may have contributed to the higher performance.
The VIP gross gaming revenue currently has a similar level to that of 2010, leaving plenty of headroom for growth, subject to regulatory and other conditions.
